Approaches to finding probability

Approachesto finding probability

UniversityAffiliation

Theoreticalprobability is the number of ways of occurrence of an event dividedby the whole outcome of the event. It uses information on thepossible outcomes to come up with various ways of occurrence of anevent. It, therefore, uses analytical knowledge on the likelyoutcomes to find the probability rather than experimenting. Intreating accident casualties, there is the likelihood that thepatients will die, have some of their body parts amputated, have amental disturbance, or get back to their usual ways after treatment(Woolfson, 2013).Professionally when encountering such cases, I always have in mindthat either one of these outcomes can affect the patient under mycare. It is because of theoretical probability that these conclusionscan be made.

Relativefrequency probability is assigning a probability to events based onnumber of times it has happened in similar trials of a chanceexperiment divided by the total number of trials in the experiment(Woolfson, 2013).It is depicted in real life from opinion censuses I once carried outconcerning the usage of an individual product or in electing people’spreferred political aspirants.Datais collected and from it, the probability is assigned to thepopulation that was involved in the survey. An example is on theusage of beverages like coffee, tea, cocoa, and soy drinks wherebythey are assigned the number of people using each and the one withthe highest population will be regarded the most consumed beverage.

Subjectiveprobability is the probability resulting from the personal judgementof an individual on whether a certain outcome is likely to occur. Itentails no formal calculations but reflect experience and opinions onthe subject(Woolfson, 2013).It is seen when an individual makes predictions without anymathematical calculations. I like eating passion fruits but the onesI used to buy are very expensive and lack the flavor I want. Due tothis, I seasonally plant my own but, unfortunately, it is neversuccessful. However, I never give up planting passion fruits andcurrently I am 50% confident that they will give me good yields withthe desired flavor. From this subjective probability is seen since Ihave no data showing the predictions but am sure about theoccurrence.

References

Woolfson,M. (2013).&nbspEverydayprobability and statistics. London:Imperial College Press.