Insert Surname 10
1.1. Background to the Research Topic 4
1.2. Problem Statement 5
1.3. Research Question 5
1.4. Research Hypotheses 6
1.5. Aims and Objectives of the Research 7
1.5.1. General Objective 7
1.5.2. Specific Objectives 7
2.0. Literature Review 8
2.1. Introduction 8
2.2. Recent Developments in North Korea 8
2.2.1. Nuclear Test: January 2016 8
2.2.2. The economic Conditions of North Korea 9
2.3. Leadership of Kim Jong-Un 9
2.4. UN Sanctions to North Korea 10
2.4.1. UNSCR 1718 11
2.4.2. UNSCR 1874 11
2.4.3. UNSCR 2087 11
2.4.4. UNSCR 2094 12
2.4.5. UNSCR 2270 12
2.5. Implications of the sanctions on the popular support of the North Korean leader 14
2.5.1. Economic Implications 14
2.5.2. Diplomatic Relationship Implications 16
3.0. Introduction 17
3.1. Research Design 17
3.2. Sampling Method 17
3.3. Data Collection 17
3.3.1. Primary data collection 17
3.3.2. Secondary Data Collection 18
3.4. Data Analysis and Presentation 18
3.5. Reliability and Validity of the Research 18
3.6. Ethical Considerations 18
Works Cited 19
How theUN Sanctions Affect Popular Support for the North Korean Leader
Background to the Research Topic
The United Nations in early March 2016 approved a plan for imposingstrict sanctions on North Korea. The main goal of the sanctions wasto stop the funding for ballistic and nuclear programs, as well aspressure the leadership in North Korea to embrace negotiations forthe denuclearization agreement (Kim Han and Jong 56). Theintroduction of sanctions was in joint resolution with China andUnited States. Also, 55 countries co-sponsored the new sanctions. Theresolution was unprecedented in the reach and scope. According todiplomats, implementing and enforcing the sanctions will be criticalfor China and Russia that border North Korea.
“Today, the international community, speaking with one voice,has sent Pyongyang a simple message: North Korea must abandon thesedangerous programs and choose a better path for its people,” saidPresident Barack Obama.
All cargo to and from north Korea is mandated to be inspected as perthe resolution. Also, all shipments for rocket fuel and aircraft werecut off and the sale of all weapons to the international communitywas banned. This was meant to restrict the revenue to government withexception of humanitarian purposes. Additionally, all countries inthe world were required to expel their diplomats from North Korea.Previously, North Korea has disordered the sanctions, especially whenit tested the hydrogen bomb and launched the nuclear missile. Theirprohibited programs have continued to flourish rather than shrink(Kim Han and Jong 58).
Over the years, North Korea has posed the mostpersistent and vexing challenges to foreign policies in U.S. Since2000, there has been no formal diplomatic relationship between theUnited States and North Korea. The main concern has been thenegotiations on nuclear weapon programs. North Korea was amongst themajor recipients of U.S. aid until 2009 when this was halted.
The negotiations on nuclear programs started in1990s during the reign of Clinton. By 2000, the negotiation extendedto include four other countries Russia, Japan, South Korea andChina. The negotiations seemed to bear fruits when North Nuclear wasto be supported in exchange for denuclearization but this wasshort-lived. With the suspension of these negotiations throughout theObama’s administration, North Korea has continued with missiletesting and nuclear programs without any agreement that can beconsidered binding. This has made many security analysts raise theirconcerns on the growing capability as well as the increasingpotential for proliferation to other adverse effects.
Kim Jong-un came to power in 2011 after thedeath of his father, Kim Jong-Il. His reign is considered brutal,especially with the massive purging of senior officials. Histwo-track policy advocates for development of nuclear weapons andeconomy. Kim has been seeking the recognition as nuclear-armed state.This prompted them to conduct a nuclear weapon test in January 2016and long range missile test in February 2016. This has promptedUnited Nations to impose tough sanctions on North Korea. This paperinvestigates how the UN sanctions affect popular support for theNorth Korean leader.
The effectiveness of international sanctions against Iran has beencontentious, especially political science and modern internationalrelations. Sanctions have been used over the years as a foreignpolicy instrument. This creates the increasing need to fullyunderstand the effects of sanction on leadership of North Korea. Overthe years, the sitting presidents have failed in honoringinternational sanctions. This raises several questions on the effectsof the sanctions to North Korean Leadership. Are they going to honorthe sanctions or ignore as they have been doing? If they fail tohonor the UN sanctions, how will the international community react?What if they honor the sanctions? How will decision to honor ordishonor the sanctions affect them? This research will seek todetermine how the UN sanctions will affect the popular support ofNorth Korean Leader. The main question that this study will seek toanswer is “how do UN sanctions affect popular support for the NorthKorean leader?”
Thisresearch will examine three hypotheses as outline below:
Hypothesis1: The UN sanctions against North Korea will affect the NorthKorean Leadership.
The UN sanctions in North Korean have been over the years meant tolimit international contact and relations of a country with theglobal community. Nevertheless, North Korea has not been honoring thesanctions. The latest sanctions issued on March 2016 are very toughand it is predicted that North Korea might be affected considerably,both economically and politically. There have been denied access torelations that are critical for an economy and will therefore becompelled to act within their territories, which in really sensemight be impossible.
Hypothesis2: The UN sanctions will not affect North Korean Leadership
Over the years, UN has been issuing sanctions but North Korea has notbeen honoring. The other factor that has been encouraging thisbehavior is because by neighboring countries like China havecontinued to support North Korea. If these countries that are inforeign relations, either through trade or any other way, will notheed to UN sanctions or fail to withdraw their help from North Korea,then North Korea will still survive and the economy will continuegrowing.
Aims and Objectives of the Research
Themain objective of this research will be to determine how the Unsanctions affect the popular support of North Korean Leader.
To determine the recent developments that have triggered UN to impose sanctions on North Korea
To examine to rise to power of Kim Jong-Un and characteristics of his leadership
To evaluate the different UN sanctions on North Korea
To evaluate the effects of the UN sanctions on leadership in North Korea
2.0. Literature Review2.1. Introduction
North Korea has an approximate population of 25million. The country has been persistently in the limelightespecially because of its dishonor to foreign policy and sanctions.The major concern of the UN on North Korea revolves around politics,international security and respect for human rights (Habib50).
2.2. Recent Developments in North Korea2.2.1. Nuclear Test: January 2016
North Korea announced successful testing of“experimental hydrogen bomb” on January 6th.This was the fourth largest nuclear weapon test. According toanalysis, Pyongyangmay have been motivated by desire to gain more attention of the fullCongress. Despite facing criticism from several countries in theworld, Pyongyang detonated a completethermonuclear device irrespective of the US sanctions that prohibitedNorth Korea from fledging the capability of nuclear weapons(Habib 50)
The nuclear weapon test was condemned by manygovernments world-wide as a violation of resolutionby United Nations Security Council(UNSC). The UNSC was compelled to hold an emergency meeting to makeresolutions that would have exposed North Korea to punitive measuresand tough sanctions. Some close allies of North Korea, such as Chinacondemned the action and called for North Korea to denuclearize(Habib 54).
2.2.2. The economic Conditions of North Korea
North Korea has experienced modest economicgrowth since 2015. This might have been contributed by economicreforms in 2014. The reforms have, however, been criticized of beingeffective in only a section of the citizen. For instance, in thecities, the reforms allow manager set the salaries of the workers aswell as terminate or employ people at will. In rural areas, thereforms allow farmers retain a large portion of their produce. Economists argue of the reforms being modest only in scale and cannotbe reversed. This has been rewarding for the elites but has reducedthe food security in the country (Center 45).
2.3. Leadership of Kim Jong-Un
Kim Jong-un has reigned for four years duringwhich he has demonstrated brutality in leading North Korea. Forinstance, in 2013, he executed his uncle, Jang Song-taek while in2015 he executed Hyon Yong-chol who was the defense minister. Sincehe took over the leadership, he has replaced an estimated number oftop 200 bureaucratic and military officials. This has raised concernson impending instability and insecurity in his regime. He has nevertravelled overseas since he assumed power. In May 2015, Kim cancelledhis trip to Russia to attend a 70thanniversary ceremony since the defeat of Nazi while in September2015 he rebuffed an invitation to attend World War II commemorationin China. Since 2013, the relationship between China and North Koreahas been deteriorating (Center 46).
The strategic patience policy on North Korea byUS insisted on commitment of Pyongyang towards denuclearization. TheNorth Korea has been facing sanctions and arms interdictions thoughthis has not been honored by the leadership in North Korea. Officialsof Six-Party Talks have believed that they’ll seek a package dealthat will lead to comprehensive denuclearization in exchange fornormalization of significant aid and relation with North Korea. TheObama’s administration has all along sought for the implementationof sanctions and threatened for more unilateral sanctions uponfailure to implement the already existing sanctions (Philipp36).
2.4. UN Sanctions to North Korea
Following the nuclear weapon test in NorthKorea, the new UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) has beenimposed on North Korea. The new sanctions are referred as UNSCR 2270and were adopted in March 2nd2016. The sanctions have put some of the arguments of nuclear weapontests and programs to rest. They resolution is a reflection ofsubstantial escalation of UNSC sanctions. If implemented as stated,the Kim’s leadership will be exposed to considerable economicpressure (Kim and Victor 101).
Thefive sanctions can be analyzed as shown below:
2.4.1. UNSCR 1718
Thiswas the first resolution imposed on 14thOctober, 2006. The resolution prevented North Korea from furtherproduction of nuclear weapons or launching of any ballistic missile.This was accompanied by wide range preclusions on trade in itemsrelated to missile, conventional and nuclear programs. Further, thesanctions imposed a travel ban against individuals and entities inNorth Korea, as well as a ban on import of luxury goods in NorthKorea suspected to be illicit (Kim and Victor 102).
2.4.2. UNSCR 1874
Thiswas adopted after the second nuclear test in June 2009. Theresolution amplified the already existing sanctions by touching onembargo of arms. The new language added supported framework ofinterdictions and inspections that were suggested in UNSCR 1718. Thisgave granularity regarding the level of interdictions and inspectionsallowable and outline the process of disposing illicit goods iffound. The UNSCR 1874 established a framework for stiffened economicsanctions that encouraged states not to export their credits or giveloans for their companies in trading partnership with North Koreans(Kim and Victor 103).
2.4.3. UNSCR 2087
Thissanction was approved in January 2013 after North Korea launched asatellite in December 2012. These sanctions never expanded thealready existing sanctions, rather, it emphasized on the need tocomply with the resolution.
2.4.4. UNSCR 2094
InMarch 2013, the UNSCR 2094 was adopted after North Korea testednuclear weapons. This was characterized by expansion of list ofpeople and entities that were subject to travel ban and freezing ofassets and widened the measures that were to deny the support thatNorth Korea might have required for her missile and nuclear programs.With the 2094 resolution, the transfer of resources and bulk cash toNorth Korea was prohibited. The UNSCR 2094 categorically outlined theobligation of other states in denying export assistance to NorthKorea or any other entity trading directly with North Korea. Thisalso mandated inspection of the cargo inspections from North Korea todetermine whether the goods are reasonable. Tough measures were to betaken upon establishment of goods being illicit (Kim andVictor 104)
Inoverall, the prior UNSC sanctions can be considered to be toughthough the country still continued with the nuclear programs. Someresolutions in these sanctions could have been interpreted broadly ornarrowly but they mostly depended on willingness by the major tradingpartners of North Korea to take strict actions for the sanctions tobe effective (Kim 130).
2.4.5. UNSCR 2270
Thisis the latest sanction adopted in 2ndMarch 2015 after the North Korea tested the hydrogen bomb andlaunched a long range nuclear missile. This has changed theperspective of the UN sanctions significantly against North Korea.The provision of this sanction touch on both the economic concernsand military programs that targeted economic vulnerabilities of NorthKorea as well as potential pathways for continued procurement of anyforeign resources or items that could have propelled the missile andnuclear programs in North Korea (Kim 132).The key features of these new sanctions include:
Other states have been prohibited with limited exceptions from importing from North Korea the iron and iron ore, coal while vanadium, rare earth metals, gold and titanium with no exceptions. On the other hand, the country is not supposed to import any aviation fuel, and this includes even the rocket fuel.
Sweeping ban has been imposed on North Korea banks and other credit entities operating abroad. Also, other banks from other states are not supposed to open any branches in North Korea, as well as spearhead the closure of the existing ones it there is credible evidence that the associated financial services provided have the capacity to support the illicit activities in North Korea.
All states are required to inspect cargo to and from North Korea. States have also been prohibited from allowing any lease of chattering of North Korean flagged aircraft or vessels or even letting their nationals operate those vessels. Every over-flight of the territory of state is to be prevented is suspicion illicit cargo onboard from North Korea. Also, North Korea will be prevented from all port call access for seagoing vessel upon establishment of same grounds.
Any private or public trade assistance has been prohibited if it has the capacity to fund the missile and nuclear activities in North Korea.
States have been obligated to expel the North Korean diplomats from their territories with minimal exceptions.
Any trade related with conventional arms to North Korea has been prohibited. This includes even the items that even if they are not arms can increase the capacity to develop arms in North Korea. This includes computers, trucks and other goods. North Korea has also been prevented from cooperating with other countries in the name of getting military training or advice.
The list of proliferation-sensitive items has been expanded. This includes items that North Korea cannot procure from other states.
The list of entities and individuals under travel ban has been increased. This include people in economic, science and military departments, as well as two banks, seven government agencies and three trading companies associated with the missile and nuclear programs in North Korea. The freezing of assets is to apply to any funds suspected and determined to be under ownership or control of North Korean government or any union of workers in North Korea.
The list of exports to Korea of Luxury goods has been expanded
The resolution has prohibited ant specialized trainings on citizens of North Korea in areas capable of contributing to proliferation of nuclear weapon development or advancement of nuclear activities.
The sanction reaffirms the prohibition of any cooperation with North Korea that is state related.
In overall, these sanctions in UNSCR 2270 are considered as thetoughest of all the resolutions that UN has inflicted on North Korea.
2.5. Implications of the sanctions on the popular support of theNorth Korean leader2.5.1. Economic Implications
The UNSCR 2270 provisions have been targeted at creating a morepronounced economic effect to North Korean leadership. The inspectionof the cargo implies a delay in the only remaining legitimate tradeas well as stigmatizes the carriers of cargo in ports. This has highlikelihood of making it impossible for North Korea to get theservices required in keeping the cargo fleet useful and afloat,particularly because of the UNSC sanctions that stipulates on‘suspicion of proliferation on an ‘reasonable grounds’ (Buzo246). This implies that even the modest export goods will be faceddifficulties during movements and may be unimpressive to manyimporters.
The prohibition of the importation of mineral resources from NorthKorea will deny the citizens a major hard currency resource as wellas hinder economic growth. The economy had already been affected bythe poor policies that denied the nationals ability to establishlegitimate effective industries and private sectors. The denial ofaccessibility to support such as loans and export credits for privatetrade and government will affect the country’s attempt to ventureinto new industries. The trade support cannot be overlooked in itscapacity to support companies venturing into risky businesses. Thedenial of export credits may lead to death of any promising businessplans. The banking sanctions will reduce the accessibility of NorthKorea to international funds. If enforced completely, the sanctionswill present an enormous setback to the growth and development ofNorth Korean economy. This will be a great blow to the policy goalsof Kim Jong-Un (Buzo 247).
Some omissions in UNSC framework will allow the economy in NorthKorea to continue wallowing in the same level. The establishment andmaintenance of banking ties will be very difficult to maintain anddevelop despite the fact that the sanctions have not outlined on anyblanket prohibition on the financial services offered to North Korea.However, the country will continue accessing the internationalfinancial services although under significant scrutiny. Theunilateral sanctions imposed by US on North Korea have seen some fewbanks that were remaining in North Korea extract themselves graduallyfrom the business (Joung 75).
North Korea is allowed to continue importing oil since oil is a majorrequirement and cutting its export may have escalated the pressure.Nevertheless, the denial on importation of aviation fuel may compelthe leadership strain further their resources as they try to producetheir own indigenously. These sanctions underscore the extent towhich international community, particularly China believe that NorthKorean actions are getting out of hand. Prior to the nuclear testsand launching of long range missile, most diplomats never tookseriously the UN sanctions on North Korea. The test and the launchdried up the remaining mercy that other countries had on North Korea.This created necessary grounds for introducing the UNSCR 2270(Joung76).
2.5.2. Diplomatic Relationship Implications
Kim is highly unlikely to ignore these tough sanctions. Reportsindicate impending nuclear test by North Korea meaning they stillhave the capacity to disobey the sanctions as they had donepreviously. Ultimately, nonetheless, it appears likely that thesemeasures in the sanctions are a predecessor to a revived diplomaticinitiative. There is high possibility that the price for the newsanctions is an initiative in itself. However, the main question iswhether the restarted diplomatic process will lead to a mutuallyreasonable quid pro quo that will probably involvesubstitution of North Korea’s missile and nuclear concessions withChina’s and United States’ trade concessions and sanctions (Teo191). This poses a huge dilemma.
There is possibility that citizens in North Korea will be incapableof supplying enough concessions to South Korea, Japan and UnitedStates. Nevertheless, with the UNSCR 2270, it appears that theinternational community is at last formulating sanctions to make somedeals possible. The president, Kim Jong-Un may soon succumb to thesanctions. There is also possibility that he will ignore them as hehas always done.
Themethodology section highlights the specific procedures that will beused in the current study. This facilitates review of the aspects ofdata collection. In this study, the methodology highlights theresearch design, sampling methods, data collection methods, dataanalysis methods, reliability and validity of the research andethical considerations.
3.1. Research Design
Thisresearch will adopt a plausible case study approach. A case studyapproach is normally used when the researcher intends to gain anunderstanding of a complex situation by analyzing what is alreadyknown (Yin 45). This should be characterized by detailed contextualanalysis of events or conditions. Qualitative method is mostly usedin this kind of research approach so as to provide a basis ofapplying ideas and methods.
3.2. Sampling Method
Purposivesampling method will be used in selecting those people who willparticipate in interviews (Tongco 64). The target population is thekey diplomats or officials who have worked directly or indirectlywith the UN in international relations. The researcher targets atleast 10 participants either within this country or any othercountry.
3.3. Data Collection
Thisdata is qualitative in nature. Both primary and secondary data willbe used.
3.3.1. Primary data collection
Primarydata will be conducted through use of interviews from key people whohave either worked directly or indirectly with UN in theirinternational relations. The researcher hopes to get this peoplewithin this country in order to limit the expenses. If need be, theresearcher will conduct interviews via Skype.
3.3.2. Secondary Data Collection
Secondarydata will be collected from journals, publications, books andinternet. The secondary sources will be chosen based on theirrelevance to the research topic.
3.4. Data Analysis and Presentation
Thedata collected will be analyzed based on thematic patterns. Thisimplies that the researcher will determine the different themes thatemerge from the data collected. The analyzed data will be presentedthrough reports.
3.5. Reliability and Validity of the Research
The validity and reliability in any research is critical in reducingerrors that arise from measurement methods used and emphasizes on theneed to ensure that the methods of measurement used are precise andaccurate (Golafshani 598). Validity of this research will be promotedby ensuring that the interview questions that will be answeredcontrary to expectation are re-scaled. The reliability of the datawill be ensured by using secondary sources or data collectionmaterials that contain information relevant to the topic. All sourcesfrom other authors and researcher will be cited, and they will bechecked to ensure that they are up to date and the authors are valid.
3.6. Ethical Considerations
According to Adams (2007), a researcher in any research is requiredto maintain some ethical standards. The various ethicalconsiderations that will be adhered to in this research includeensuring of confidentiality of the data collected from therespondents. This will be enhanced by promoting anonymity of theparticipants. Also, the researcher will ensure voluntary consent onthe part of participants.
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